This time next year, no one is going to remember Terminator: Dark Fate. It’s just the umpteenth failed sequel in a franchise that now has more bad movies than good. Sure, this one is at least watchable, but only in that old school if you’re flipping through cable and it happens to be on kind of way, which is hardly even a thing anymore. However, a year from now I’m still going to remember what Dark Fate contributed to our ongoing cultural conversation about Hollywood’s quickly decaying dream factory. In assessing Dark Fate’s failure, analysts used a phrase I don’t think I’ve quite seen before: “complete IP failure.”
That comes halfway through The Hollywood Reporter’s Dark Fate box office post-mortem analysis, “Box office analysts say the movie’s poor opening is a reflection of complete IP failure. (Insiders at Paramount and Skydance don’t disagree.)”
That might not seem like a particularly bold insight nor does it immediately jump off the screen as a memorable turn of phrase. However, it truly is remarkable in today’s Hollywood for any franchise to reach such a stage of such perpetual disappointment that it’s deemed “complete IP failure.”
The coin of the realm is IP, and no good IP ever dies. If the film’s stop making money, there’s always TV. If that doesn’t work, wait two years and try the big screen again. Make some new toys. Look into extending the story through comic books. Do whatever it takes to keep the IP alive, always knowing that audiences are stupid sheep who, deep down, just want to be sold a bottle of nostalgia pills. (Hat tip to HBO’s Watchmen for that concept.) The trick is getting them to buy the damn thing.
Terminator, however, illustrates that an IP can only be stretched so far before it breaks down completely. In the weeks since its release, Doctor Sleep (a spectacular sequel to a movie from 1980, but nearly impossible to market) and Charlie’s Angels (at least the fourth different iteration of a 70s TV show) suffered similarly disastrous weekends. It’s part of an entirely predictable trend whereby Hollywood’s decade-long attempt to cut through the clutter by strictly prioritizing IP has both led to bottom-of-the-barrel-scraping greenlight decisions and audience apathy. We are all Jack’s complete lack of surprise anymore when the latest sequel, reboot, requel, whatever is met with ho-hum/terrible reviews and promptly falls short of opening weekend projections.
Dark Fate, on its own, is an example of an individual franchise reaching complete IP failure, but Hollywood, in general, is facing an industry-wide IP crisis. Remember, 2019 has also included several other IP rebrands nobody went to see (Shaft, Child’s Play, Hellboy, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, Uglydolls, Men in Black: International) as well as multiple underperforming sequels, only a couple of which have a chance to eventually turn a profit (The Angry Birds Movie 2, Dark Phoenix, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, It: Chapter Two, The Lego Movie 2, Rambo: Last Blood).
Not even Disney is immune. The House that Walt Built might have a claim to 6 of the top 10-grossing films of the year, but there have been misses. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil’s worldwide box office is off -40% compared to 2014’s Maleficent, and the internet has made a bit of a sport trying to figure out exactly how much the Mouse House lost on Dumbo, a movie which somehow cost $170 million to make.
None of this probably changes anything. Currently, eighteen of the year’s top 20 domestic grossers are based in some kind of IP. (The only two originals: Us and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.) Further down the list, there have been several smaller-scale IP success stories, such as The Addams Family quadrupling its budget at the worldwide box office and Zombieland: Double Tap managing to at least match the business of its predecessor despite the ten-year gap in-between movies.
However, the IP bottom in the industry is looking shakier and shakier, as we’ve seen in stark display this month thanks to the absolutely brutal run of Dark Fate, Doctor Sleep, and Charlie’s Angels. So, as a bit of a lark, the following is my imagined conversation with the average ticket buyer who rejected all three of these movies:
Hey, you know that new Terminator movie – Terminator: Dark Fate? It’s not half-bad.
Pass.
But, but, but…it has Linda Hamilton in it!
Who?
You bite your tongue!
I didn’t say that to be mean. It’s just, she hasn’t appeared on screen in one of these movies since 1991, and other than some Canadian TV SyFy shows she hasn’t really acted in anything period in the last 15 years. Her grand return has an inherently limited appeal.
Well, it’s not her return. Arnold’s in it too.
Like that means anything anymore.
James Cameron produced it!
You mean like how “endorsed” Genisys?
No, that was just a glorified hostage video he made for Arnold when that movie looked like it was going to bomb. This time, he came up with the story, performed uncredited rewrites on the script, and produced the movie. He hired the guy who directed the first Deadpool to man the camera.
Still, pass. Also, you know “it’s not half-bad” isn’t the type of thing that’s going to convince me to spend money and take time to go see this thing, right?
Can’t blame you. There hasn’t been a legitimately amazing new Terminator movie in nearly 30 years.
Speaking of which, I bet what you really want is a halfway sequel to a Stanley Kubrick classic from 1980. It’s called…
Wait. Is it a sequel to The Shining or not? That shouldn’t be a hard question.
Actually, it’s a sequel to both the movie AND the book! Pretty cool, right?
More like super confusing.
See, in the Shining book the hotel blows up at the end, O’Halloran doesn’t die, and there are hedge animals, not a hedge maze, and Stephen King eventually wrote a sequel called Doctor Sleep. This new movie adapts that book but places it in the continuity of the Kubrick movie. This means, for example, that O’Halloran is a character in Doctor Sleep but only as a ghost and the climax takes place at the Overlook.
That sounds like homework. Pass.
You didn’t let me finish! Doctor Sleep is…
A box office bomb!
Oh, come on! It’s the title, isn’t it? You don’t care if sites like this one call Doctor Sleep one of the best Stephen King adaptations since The Shawshank Redemption. It’s that super awkward title that’s killing it for you, right?
Yes, the title sucks. I mean, what even is a “Doctor Sleep”? Did that kid from The Shining grow up to be a sleep researcher or something?
Actually, he works in a hospice care facility where he uses his psychic ability to help suffering patients enter into a peaceful dream state right before dying. The other patients on the wing start to notice and take to calling him “Doctor Sleep” as a nickname.
Uh-huh. That’s…weird. Let me ask you this: does that in any way impact the actual plot of the movie? I’m not talking metaphorically or thematically or anything like that. From a pure storytelling standpoint, does this ability of his to be “Doctor Sleep” to the dying actually directly impact the story?
Not really.
Then why even call it that!
Hey, your beef is with Stephen King. That’s what he called his book.
And can we talk about the confusing trailer and underwhelming TV spots? From what I can tell, they made a sequel to one of the famous haunted house…
Hotel. The Shining isn’t technically a haunted house movie, it’s about a haunted hotel.
Whatever. You know what I mean. There’s this classic movie about a family staying in a haunted place, and the sequel is all about, I wanna say, energy vampires who don’t have fangs, can walk in sunlight, and dress like gypsies?
First of all, I don’t think we’re allowed to say “gypsy’ anymore. Secondly, that’s simply what the book is about. It was a New York Times Bestseller, after all.
What, like that’s hard? Just ask Donald Trump, Jr.
Please. No politics.
Oh, do you feel triggered?
No, I just..wait. I see what you did there. Because DTJ’s book is called Triggered. Clever. But, seriously, no politics.
Fine. Back to the trailer, what’s the deal with the woman in the hat?
That’s Rose the Hat. She’s played by Rebecca Ferguson, and she’s possibly one of the best King villains of all time.
But what’s with the hat?
I…don’t actually know. The movie never really offers an explanation, other than her using it to perform magic tricks in an opening scene that ends with her and her crew killing a little girl.
Also from the trailer…wait, did you just say they kill a little girl?
Yep. They also kill Jacob Tremblay. The younger and more scared the victim, the sweeter the psychic energy they give off as they die.
I don’t really know what to do with that, out of context.
It’s so disturbing, but in exactly the way you want from a movie which can surprise you.
Let’s just move on and get back to what I know of this from the trailers. Why should I be swayed by some new movie recreating the original Stanley Kubrick Overlook Hotel set down to the finest detail when Steven Spielberg just did that last year in Ready Player One? How is that your main selling point?
Well, in this movie the sets are entirely practical. Spielberg did his with a lot of digital trickeration.
Isn’t that the kind of discrepancy that only matters to hardcore film nerds? Plus, I didn’t actually see Ready Player One. I just know about The Shining connection because there were so many memes about it. I don’t know anyone who actually saw that movie.
That’s not surprising. Ready Player One actually did ok at the box office in America, but it made its real money overseas, especially in China. Dark Fate and Doctor Sleep, on the other hand, are each set to lose millions. Same goes for the new Charlie’s Angels.
The one directed by Elizabeth Banks?
Yeah, did you see it this weekend?
Of course not, but I remember how hard the trailers worked to make sure we got that this particular reboot was “directed by Elizabeth Banks.”
What’s so bad about that? She did direct Pitch Perfect 3, after all, and aren’t we supposed to support female directors?
Yeah, when they make something worth seeing. That ain’t this. Seriously, tell me why I should care about a new Charlie’s Angels other than some vague notion of feminism.
Well, there’s Kristen Stewart and Naomi Scott and, um, Patrick Stewart, and..
And…
That’s it. I’ve got nothing. This was a bad idea from the get-go, a continuation of a film franchise which was itself a continuation of a campy 70s TV show. The last movie came out 16 years ago and barely made twice its budget. They tried to make a TV show reboot 8 years ago and ABC canceled it after one month. Yet, in the face of a complete total IP failure Sony figured it could just make a new movie aimed directly at teenage girls, many of whom weren’t even alive when Drew Berrymore, Charlize Theron, and Lucy Liu were the Angels and probably haven’t even heard of Farrah Fawcett or any of the other original Angels.
But I thought the teenagers were supposed to be swayed by Ariana Grande, Miley Cyrus, and Lana Del Rey collaborating on a new song for the soundtrack? I remember that taking up around half of the trailer.
It’s not 2001 anymore. This isn’t Moulin Rouge. You can’t just put together a bunch of pop stars on a title song for the soundtrack and expect them to turn out in theaters. They’re just going to stream the song on Spotify and continue ignoring Ariana Grande’s (paid) Instagram posts encouraging everyone to go see the movie.
I feel like we’ve switched places. Aren’t you supposed to be defending the movies while I explain why I don’t care?
Fair. Maybe it’s time to wrap this up. So, in closing, you’re not swayed by a so-so Terminator movie, just find Doctor Sleep super confusing, and don’t understand which audience was screaming for a new Charlie’s Angels.
That’s about right.
But you’re still totally going to see Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker?
Well, yeah. Disney has all the best franchises.
We Minored in Film 
Well you’ve possibly convinced me to see Dr Sleep…
Then my work here is done, almost at least.
I think Complete IP failure is a good thing after reading your post. The way they have bent and manipulated new chapters to fit with the existing IP eg Dark Fate and Doctor Sleep is giving me a headache. Can we just start things with a clean slate and just create new IP?
I think I’ve seen James Cameron interviews where he said he wrote sequels such that you didn’t need to have watched the previous film to understand what’s going on. Maybe Jim needs to put his money where his mouth and write something rather than be a cheerleader (Genesys) or producer (Dark Fate).
True about James Cameron. I’d like to say Hollywood is going to learn from this, but literally since I wrote this Netflix announced David Fincher is making a Chinatown prequel and The Little Monsters director has been hired to make a Robocop movie. At least no one will have to pay directly to see that Chinatown thing. Forget it, Jake, it’s Frontier Town?
WTF?! The Robocop remake made back its investment but not much. I wonder if the people who organized “Our Robocop Remake” and “Our Footloose Remake” will do another film.
A Chinatown prequel could work well as a TV series. Stating the obvious, they need to learn from the mistakes of the past I really enjoy “Better Call Saul”. Although I know which characters survive into “Breaking Bad” era, there’s investment in the new characters.
PS Do you know what Arnold’s salary was for “Dark Fate”? I’m wondering how many tickets got sold just because of Arnold and if that exceeds the number of tickets that need to be sold to pay for Arnold.
Before Disney, 5 out of 6 Star Wars films partly took place on Tatooine. It was so bizarre. ESB didn’t and many consider it the best in the series.
Every Terminator film has featured Arnold or CG Arnold’s face on somebody else’s body (Salvation). Remember when Reese was concerned because a T-800 could be anyone? Can they get over this one skinjob?
Not sure that I will rush out to see Frozen 2, but I am sure a lot of people will…
Frankly, does nobody in Hollywood read BOOKs anymore? I can think of a couple of books which would be perfect for the big screen and could be done on a reasonable budget. And already have a fanbase which might be excited enough to at least start the conversation of the movie. Instead they insist on serving us a warmed up meal again and again and again. Even for Disney that doesn’t work that easily.
My read on Hollywood’s reaction to books these days is that they are better off as TV show adaptations. I think the YA bubble bursting and ongoing failure to turn series like Our Mortal Instruments into hit films has led to people giving up entirely. That’s how we end up with His Dark Materials as an HBO/BBC series instead of a Golden Compass film reboot.
As for Frozen 2, I will be seeing it this weekend. Will write about it after.
Depends on the book. I can think of a few which would work better as movies. Not every book is part of a long fantasy saga.
Yes. Frozen exploded. Just wow. It’s killing it.
This is as awesome article.
Thanks! I don’t do quite as many industry analysis pieces as I used to, but this recent run of bombs demanded a response, I’d say.
Great article! Between the high ticket costs and the “concert stadium” theatres with the massive parking lots, I need “analaysis” to pick and chose films more economically in these “tight” days. And Doctor Sleeps sounds like “homework,” which is sounds like Halloween (2018). It’s a sequel but it’s not a sequel, forget about the ’80s sequels; this is a new timeline, etc. TDF has the same vibe on it: homework. Thus, I’ll wait for the POV, maybe even Redbox ’em both.
“massive parking lots”
You can also add that in certain mega-big cities there might also be a parking valet involved as well. I’ve heard people who live in LA complain about that kind of thing whenever the topic of declining movie attendance comes up. Also, regardless of where you live, if you have kids and you want to take a night to go see, I dunno. Ford v Ferrari that might mean finding and/or paying a babysitter.
“Doctor Sleeps sounds like “homework,” which is sounds like Halloween (2018)”
It’s actually worse, in terms of “homework.” Halloween is a far simpler premise to pick up on – everything after the first movie didn’t happen. Michael Meyers is just some guy who killed his sister, broke out of the insane asylum and killed a couple of teenagers, and has been locked up ever since. Laurie is not his sister; she’s just a survivor who has serious emotional scars and PTSD symptoms. Then, Michael breaks out again and instinctively returns home. Start the slasher movie. Doctor Sleep, by comparison, is a sequel to a movie that was based on a book AND it’s an adaptation of a book that pretended as if Stanley Kubrick’s film never happened. So, it’s honoring two competing mythologies – Kubrick’s Shining and King’s Shining and trying to make that work while also comping up with its own entirely unique ending, one not actually found in the Doctor Sleep novel. It’s an in-crowd, out-crowd kind of thing – if you are in the bag for this material, you will most likely deeply appreciate if not love the film; if not, it’ll just be confusing, confounding, and probably not the horror movie you wanted since Flanagan’ss style is so very different than Kubrick’s.
It’s…a lot to process if you’re on the outside of it, and you see Hollywood struggling with this kind of thing all the time now. When everything is an IP update of some kind, there is an inescapable feel of “homework” to so many new movies, presenting us with that unending question, “Do I need to have read a book or seen a bunch of older movies to understand this?” There’s nothing wrong with that kind of entertainment part of the time, but when it’s just about the only thing playing in theaters it’s all the more reason for people to stay home and stream some peak TV.
You in no way spoiled Dr. Sleep for me. Now I can go into it with a clearer head and not be pissed off. I was ready and going into it “pissed off,” which was my err with Dark Tower. I lost my objectivity on that one and I was ready to hate it. So I’ll give DRS a chance.
As for the parking lots: When I go to the movies . . . and they have golf cart trolley toolin’ around, you know things are out of control. No thanks, I’ll walk. Going to see Iron Maiden was easier and that was insane.
(Marge Simpson voice) Golf carts in a movie theater parking lot? Now I’ve seen everything!
But, no, seriously, I’ve never personally encountered that one. I agree – if your theater is so big it needs golf carts to ferry people to the front door, no thank you. Netflix and chill, please.
Also, glad to hear I didn’t spoil Doctor Sleep for you. Non-spoiling isn’t always my strong suit.
I’m telling you. One of those little trolleys pulled by golf cart. Hello, Netflix is right!